Inflation is a sustained rise in the overall prices of goods and services, so the same amount of money buys less. A small amount of inflation is normal for a growing economy, but if it gets too high, the central bank has to raise interest rates to slow it down.
Key US Inflation Measures
| Measure | Compiled by | Release | Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (Consumer Price Index) | BLS, Department of Labor | Monthly, mid-month at 8:30 a.m. New York time | The most closely watched by the market because it is released first |
| PCE Price Index | BEA, Department of Commerce | Monthly, late in the month | Used by the Fed for its 2% inflation target |
| PPI (Producer Price Index) | BLS | Monthly | Prices on the producer side, which may be passed on to consumers |
How Headline and Core Differ
- Headline includes all categories, including food and energy, whose prices are volatile
- Core excludes food and energy to show the underlying trend of inflation. The Fed and the market usually give Core more weight
How to Read the Numbers
Each release comes in two forms:
- Month-over-month (MoM) shows the latest momentum
- Year-over-year (YoY) is the headline figure in the news, used for comparison with the 2% target
What the market looks at is the actual figure versus the analyst forecast (Consensus)
| Result | Meaning | Typical reaction |
|---|---|---|
| Higher than expected | The Fed may keep rates high for longer or keep raising them | The dollar strengthens; gold and stocks come under pressure |
| Lower than expected | The Fed has room to cut rates | The dollar weakens; gold and stocks get a boost |
On CPI release days, gold prices, the dollar and stock index futures often swing sharply within a few minutes. In Thai time, this is around 19:30 (US summer time) or 20:30 (US winter time).
Thailand's Inflation
Thailand uses a consumer price index compiled by the Ministry of Commerce, and the Bank of Thailand (BOT) sets a headline inflation target of 1–3%. Read more: Major Central Banks of the World
For education only, not investment advice. Figures change over time, so check official sources before making decisions.