Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the number of jobs added or lost in the US in the previous month, excluding the farm sector, household employees, and some types of non-profit organizations. The figure is part of the Employment Situation report from the US Department of Labor (BLS).
When It Is Released
- Normally on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time
- In Thai time, that is 19:30 (US summer time) or 20:30 (US winter time)
Key Figures in the Report
| Figure | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | Number of jobs added/lost; the main headline figure |
| Unemployment Rate | Share of the labor force that is unemployed |
| Average Hourly Earnings | Inflationary pressure from wages |
| Revisions to the previous month's figures | Sometimes more important than the latest month's figure |
| Labor Force Participation Rate | People entering or leaving the labor market |
How the Market Interprets It
Because employment is one of the Fed's two goals, this figure can change interest rate expectations immediately.
- Employment stronger than expected + fast wage growth → the Fed does not need to rush to cut rates, or may even have to raise them → the dollar tends to strengthen, gold tends to fall
- Employment weaker than expected + rising unemployment → the market expects the Fed to cut rates → the dollar tends to weaken, gold tends to rise
- If the figures are so bad that they spark fears of a recession, stocks may fall even though rates are likely to be cut
The different parts of the report can give conflicting signals. For example, NFP may be good while wage growth slows, causing prices to swing up and down several times in the first 15–30 minutes.
Other Labor Data to Watch
- Initial Jobless Claims: people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, released every Thursday
- JOLTS: job openings
- ADP: private-sector employment from the company ADP, released two days before NFP, but it does not always predict NFP accurately
For education only, not investment advice. Figures change over time, so check official sources before making decisions.