30 Sep 2026StocksHawkish central bankTranslated by AI
SET Plunges 2.21% to Close at 1,559.01, Falling Below 1,600 Again as Banking and Telecom Stocks Are Sold Off
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On 30 Sep 2026, the SET index closed at 1,559.01 points, down 35.29 points (−2.21%), on selling in large-cap banking and telecom stocks. Foreign investors cut positions after the Thai market had run harder than its regional neighbors.
Why it moves markets, and what history says
High bond yields and the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates again are driving foreign capital out of emerging markets, so large-cap stocks with heavy foreign ownership were sold first.
Similar past event: The Fed starts its steepest hiking cycle in 40 years (Mar–Dec 2022)
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend.
See details Deeper view and what to watchThe 1,600-point level has become short-term resistance. Analysts see a chance of a short-term rebound, but as long as foreign investors remain net sellers and the baht stays weak, a rebound tends to be limited. Watch the daily net foreign buy/sell figures and the outcome of the Fed meeting in late Oct.
Sources: Kaohoon International: Market Roundup 30 September 2026
23 Sep 2026CryptoHawkish central bankTranslated by AI
Bitcoin trades around $85,700, about 32% below its previous all-time high
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On Sept. 23, 2026, BTC traded at around $85,686, about $26,400 lower than the same time last year and about $40,000 below its record high of $126,198 (Oct. 6, 2025)
Why it moves markets, and what history says
When central banks are tightening and interest rates are high, market liquidity declines, and high-risk assets such as crypto tend to underperform other markets. The picture resembles the 2022 crypto bear market.
Similar past event: The Fed starts its steepest hiking cycle in 40 years (Mar–Dec 2022)
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend.
See details Deeper view and what to watchWhat to watch: the direction of the Fed's interest rate decision at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows, and the level of leverage in the futures market. The lesson from Oct. 10, 2025 is that when leverage is high, even minor bad news can cause prices to fall sharply, far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Sources: KuCoin: Bitcoin price on September 23, 2026
17 Sep 2026GoldHawkish central bankTranslated by AI
Gold falls to a 6-week low of $4,235 after Fed rate hike, then rebounds to around $4,300
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On Sept. 17, 2026, gold prices dropped to $4,235 per ounce, the lowest in 6 weeks, as the dollar strengthened after the rate hike, before buyers stepped back in and pushed prices up to around $4,300, while the 10-year US Treasury yield eased to about 4.94%.
Why it moves markets, and what history says
The initial reaction followed the textbook: higher interest rates pressured gold prices. But the quick return of buyers suggests the market is still worried about high inflation and economic risks, which support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Similar past event: The Fed starts its steepest hiking cycle in 40 years (Mar–Dec 2022)
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend.
See details Deeper view and what to watchThe $4,235 level is an important short-term support. If it breaks while the dollar keeps strengthening, there is a chance of a deeper pullback. If it holds and the 10-year yield eases, gold tends to return to its previous trend. Gold traders should always watch the dollar index and real yields together.
Sources: Admirals: market reaction to the Fed hike
16 Sep 2026MacroHawkish central bankTranslated by AI
Fed raises rates by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00% as inflation remains high
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At its 15–16 Sep 2026 meeting, the FOMC voted unanimously, 12–0, to raise rates by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, while revising up its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and Core PCE to 3.4%, well above the 2% target. The dollar strengthened during the press conference. The Dow Jones fell 631 points (−1.21%) and the S&P 500 fell 0.45%.
Why it moves markets, and what history says
Higher US interest rates make holding the dollar more rewarding, drawing capital back to the US. This puts pressure on gold (which pays no interest), equities, and liquidity-dependent crypto. Emerging markets such as Thailand often face selling by foreign investors as a consequence.
Similar past event: The Fed starts its steepest hiking cycle in 40 years (Mar–Dec 2022)
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend.
See details Deeper view and what to watchBase scenario (medium–high probability): The Fed keeps a hawkish stance until inflation clearly slows. The dollar gets further support and gold swings within a wide range.
Alternative scenario: Employment data weakens sharply, and the market starts to view this rate hike as the last one. Gold and equities recover.
Watch: Nonfarm Payrolls on 2 Oct, September CPI in mid-October, FOMC meeting on 27–28 Oct. During high-impact news periods, consider reducing position size or pausing your EA temporarily.
Sources: Admirals: Fed Raised Interest Rates to 3.75%-4.00% · FOMC Meeting Schedule September 2026
23 Aug 2026MacroTranslated by AI
Oil Pulls Back: Brent Below $91, WTI Below $85
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Crude oil prices pulled back, with Brent falling below $91 and WTI below $85 per barrel, in line with the EIA's forecast that Brent will average around $85 in Q3 2026.
Why it moves markets, and what history says
Cheaper oil eases inflationary pressure in the near term. If it continues, it would reduce the case for the Fed to raise interest rates again. A slight positive for equities.
Deeper view and what to watchWatch OPEC+ production capacity decisions and tensions in the Middle East. Thai energy stocks tend to move in line with oil prices, while airline and transport stocks benefit when oil is cheaper.
Sources: Crypto Briefing: Crude oil prices drop