US wages rise just 0.1%, Fed hike risk this month eases, though sources differ on the odds

The US September jobs report was soft. Wages rose 0.1% m/m and 3.0% y/y, and the three-month payroll average fell to around 50,000 from 71,000. CME FedWatch put the odds of a quarter-point hike this month at about 22%, while Schwab cited 14%, down from 70% early in the week.

Markets are judging whether the Fed will hike again. Weaker jobs and wage data ease pressure for a hike, which affects Treasury yields and the dollar through rate expectations. The details are mixed, though: the household survey showed a gain of 406,000 and the participation rate rose.

The CME (about 22%) and Schwab (14%) figures differ, likely because of different timestamps, so it is best to track one source consistently. Watch whether the 10-year Treasury yield, last around 5.272% after touching a two-decade high near 5.3% this week, stays elevated.