Impact on each asset
USD ▲US dollarTailwind
XAU ▼GoldHeadwind
US ▼US stocksHeadwind
SET ▼Thai stocksHeadwind
BTC ▼CryptoHeadwind
Summary
Wednesday: CPI surged to 3.7% y/y (forecast 3.6%), while PPI hit 6.3% y/y, the hottest since March 2022. Core CPI climbed to 2.6% y/y. Gasoline prices drove most of the heat, rising 34.2% annually and accounting for over half of the monthly gain.
Why it moves markets
Back-to-back inflation beats on 14–15 October raised the market's odds of a Fed hike before year-end to above 96%, with a near 50–50 chance of a 0.5% hike by December. Higher-for-longer rates pressure equities, weaken the yen carry trade, lift USD, and suppress gold and Bitcoin.
Similar past event: The Fed starts its steepest hiking cycle in 40 years (Mar–Dec 2022)
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend. See details
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend. See details
Deeper view and what to watch
The Fed meets 28 October. Watch for dovish or hawkish signals in the next two weeks. If unemployment data and other releases stay warm, the FOMC may signal a more aggressive path than markets now expect. Yields fell sharply on 15 October despite hot data, suggesting some technical relief, but the inflation trend remains the key risk for asset prices through year-end.
For education only, not investment advice. Prices and figures change constantly, so check the sources before making decisions.