Impact on each asset
USD ▼US dollarHeadwind
XAU ▲GoldTailwind
US ▲US stocksTailwind
SET ▲Thai stocksTailwind
BTC ▲CryptoTailwind
Summary
CME FedWatch put the chance of a Fed hike at the 27–28 Oct meeting at 21.6% on the morning of 2 Oct, down from 64.2% a week earlier. Core PCE rose 3% in August, below the 3.3% consensus, and August payrolls were revised down to 133,000.
Why it moves markets
Markets use inflation and jobs data to judge the rate path. When hike odds fall, pressure on stocks and risk assets usually eases and the dollar tends to soften. Rate risk has not disappeared, though.
Deeper view and what to watch
FedWatch still prices a December hike, with a 0.00% chance of a December hold. Watch the next inflation and jobs releases ahead of the 27–28 Oct FOMC. Sources show slightly different odds (17% vs 21.6%) because they use different snapshot times.
Sources
For education only, not investment advice. Prices and figures change constantly, so check the sources before making decisions.