What happened
On October 9, 2026, major fuel retailers raised prices by another 0.75 baht a litre, taking diesel to 42.94 baht. Brent crude remains around $100 a barrel on Middle East tensions, even though news of talks with Iran pulled prices back a little.
The other thing to know: the Oil Fuel Fund is about 80 billion baht in deficit and is expected to reach 100 billion baht in October. The fund office plans to reduce subsidies step by step, which means pump prices are more likely to rise than fall in the near term.
Where small businesses feel it
- Parcel delivery: Flash, J&T and KEX have charged 3 baht more per parcel since April 1, 2026, and Thailand Post raised EMS and eCo-Post rates from April 16. All called it a temporary fuel surcharge, but it is hard to see it falling while oil stays high.
- Inbound freight: The Land Transport Federation of Thailand says road freight volumes are down about 15–20% from a year earlier, while costs such as tyres and engine oil are up about 20–25%. These costs usually end up in the price of the goods shops buy.
- Customer spending: As travel and living costs rise, customers become choosier, compare prices more and react more to delivery fees.
Rework your profit per order (hypothetical example)
An online clothing shop sells a shirt for 290 baht.
| Item | Before | After delivery increase |
|---|---|---|
| Selling price | 290 | 290 |
| Cost of goods | 150 | 150 |
| Delivery | 38 | 41 |
| Bag and box | 8 | 8 |
| Fees and ads (assumed 10%) | 29 | 29 |
| Profit per order | 65 | 62 |
Delivery rose by only 3 baht, but profit fell by almost 5%. If the shop also pays for free delivery, or sells low-margin goods, the hit is much larger.
The figures are an example to show the method. Try it with your own shop's numbers.
6 things you can do right away
- Recalculate profit per order for every product. Build a table like the one above and find the items where profit is almost gone. Fix those first.
- Change your free-delivery rule. Move from free delivery on every order to free delivery above a minimum spend. Some customers will add items to reach it.
- Sell sets or bundles. One box costs the same to ship, but the order value is higher, so delivery cost per item falls.
- Make boxes smaller and lighter. Many carriers charge by size and weight, so a box that fits the product saves money on every order. Compare carriers from time to time.
- If you must raise prices, say so. Raise them a little at a time and explain why. Most customers accept that better than quietly lower quality or smaller portions.
- Don't tie up cash in stock. When costs are volatile, cash in hand matters most. Order what you can sell and keep a reserve.
The hidden opportunity
When costs are high, people look harder for ways to save, such as good-value household goods, products that cut electricity or fuel use, and local services that batch deliveries. Shops that clearly communicate value have a chance to win new customers.
What to watch next
- World oil prices and the Iran talks. Progress could pull oil lower; a setback could send it back up fast.
- The Oil Fuel Fund's subsidy cuts. If they start, domestic diesel prices will rise again.
- The Bank of Thailand's MPC meeting on October 28, 2026. The policy rate is 1.00% and the central bank expects inflation of about 2.8% this year. The decision affects business loan rates.
Sources
For education only, not investment, legal or tax advice. Figures change over time, so check official sources before making decisions.