Fed raises rates by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00% as inflation remains high
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At its 15–16 Sep 2026 meeting, the FOMC voted unanimously, 12–0, to raise rates by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%, while revising up its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% and Core PCE to 3.4%, well above the 2% target. The dollar strengthened during the press conference. The Dow Jones fell 631 points (−1.21%) and the S&P 500 fell 0.45%.
Why it moves markets, and what history says
Higher US interest rates make holding the dollar more rewarding, drawing capital back to the US. This puts pressure on gold (which pays no interest), equities, and liquidity-dependent crypto. Emerging markets such as Thailand often face selling by foreign investors as a consequence.
Similar past event: The Fed starts its steepest hiking cycle in 40 years (Mar–Dec 2022)
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend. See details
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend. See details
Deeper view and what to watch
Base scenario (medium–high probability): The Fed keeps a hawkish stance until inflation clearly slows. The dollar gets further support and gold swings within a wide range.
Alternative scenario: Employment data weakens sharply, and the market starts to view this rate hike as the last one. Gold and equities recover.
Watch: Nonfarm Payrolls on 2 Oct, September CPI in mid-October, FOMC meeting on 27–28 Oct. During high-impact news periods, consider reducing position size or pausing your EA temporarily.
Sources: Admirals: Fed Raised Interest Rates to 3.75%-4.00% · FOMC Meeting Schedule September 2026