Impact on each asset
USD ▲▲US dollarStrong tailwind
XAU ▼GoldHeadwind
US ■US stocksLimited
SET ▼Thai stocksHeadwind
BTC ▼CryptoHeadwind
Summary
The market prices an 84% chance of a December Fed rate hike, as the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation climbed to 3.9%, its highest since May 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.25%, and the dollar strengthened to 101.9 DXY, a six-month high.
Why it moves markets
Persistent inflation is derailing the Fed's plan to pause rate cuts. Hawkish guidance and higher yields support the dollar, while rising real yields weigh on bonds and cryptocurrencies. The market now prices a high probability of tighter policy through year-end.
Similar past event: The Fed starts its steepest hiking cycle in 40 years (Mar–Dec 2022)
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend. See details
In a rising-rate cycle the dollar is usually the winner, while assets that rely on cheap money (growth stocks, crypto) tend to struggle. When the Fed keeps signalling tightening, be careful trading against the dollar trend. See details
Deeper view and what to watch
Watch November and December CPI prints closely. If September inflation came in above 3.5%, December rate-hike odds will climb further. Long-dated yields could break 5.5% if the Fed remains hawkish, pressuring equities and alternative assets.
For education only, not investment advice. Prices and figures change constantly, so check the sources before making decisions.