Gold Rebounds Slightly but High Real Yields Remain Headwind

Spot gold closed the week at $4,194.36/oz, up 1.3% weekly, but faces resistance at $4,200 and the 100-day moving average at $4,259. Real yields remain anchored as 30-year Treasury yields hit 5.732%, the highest since 2002.

Elevated real yields—Treasury yields minus inflation expectations—act as a drag on gold, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion rises. A strong dollar in tandem with rising long-bond yields creates a dual headwind.

Watch whether real yields stay above 1.0% or begin to ease. If inflation expectations rise above 4.0%, gold may find support. Otherwise, sustained hawkish Fed messaging will keep buyers on the sidelines until yields reverse.